Lakhdar Brahimi: Afghanistan's Future
March 9, 2009
The Obama administration wants to convene an
international conference on the future of Afghanistan and is
suggesting that it may be time to bring some elements of the Taliban
into the discussion, a break with the policies of George W. Bush and
Bill Clinton, during whose presidency Al Qaeda established its
foothold there in the late 1990s.
Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations official who led the 2001
Bonn conference that created the current Afghan government, says new
talks, while a welcome first step, may be at least six years too
late. In a March 7 interview, he said NATO has no comprehensive
strategy for Afghanistan, only a clutch of national armies with
their own agendas and battle plans. Foreigners have ceased to be
seen as friends and are now occupiers who sideline the government of
President Hamid Karzai, and then turn against him when things go
wrong. Here is an edited transcript of the interview.
What should happen in this
forthcoming conference?
What has been missing these past few years is a
common strategy for all who are involved in Afghanistan. What we've
had until now were different national policies. It was not a
division of labor; it was different agendas. That is ineffective and
at times disastrous because, obviously, it is not possible for
several countries to wage separate wars in the same country and be
successful.
So to bring everybody together around the same
table and discuss what needs to be done is a step in the right
direction--on condition, however, that this is prepared seriously
and that the agenda is not any more the so-called "war on terror,"
which has been a very questionable concept and, at any rate, not
very successful in Afghanistan (or anywhere else, for that matter).
The objective should be obvious: how to
effectively help the people of Afghanistan, in close cooperation
with them, to address their problems, rebuild their country and not
allow their territory to be used by anybody else for anything that
is alien to the interests of the people of Afghanistan.
If I understood Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton well, she is thinking of a conference at the end of March.
That is very, very close, indeed. I know that the Americans have
done a lot of work, that General Petraeus in particular has had, I
understand, 300 people working for him to make an assessment. That's
very good. But I'm not certain how much cooperation there has been
with the government of Afghanistan and with other stakeholders--the
Afghan Parliament, for example, and various groups and
personalities.
Since Bonn, what has
unraveled?
I'm afraid, almost everything. We are now paying
the price for what we did wrong from day one. First, the people who
were in Bonn were not fully representative of the rich variety of
the Afghan people. I underlined this fact to the thirty-five
delegates we brought together in Bonn again and again. I made the
point once more when an agreement was reached and we all prepared to
return to Kabul: the popular base of the interim administration put
together in Bonn under President Karzai was far too narrow.
We all vowed to work hard to widen that base once
we returned to Kabul. Unfortunately, very little was done. On the
contrary, the Northern Alliance [the remnants of the old mujahedeen],
which had been thoroughly defeated by the Taliban and had been
literally resuscitated from certain death by the US, was actively
engaged in consolidating its grip over the country.
We now have a very, very serious situation. To be
sure, the Taliban are not universally liked in Afghanistan. But when
they first erupted on the Afghan scene in 1994, their success was
due to the fact that those who were in charge [the mujahedeen] were
much worse. I am afraid today's government is not much better than
that of the mujahedeen after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union and
the fall of the man they left in charge, Najibullah.
And the Taliban
watched from the sidelines as old warlords returned and much of the
country was unprotected?
The Taliban never surrendered to anybody. They
had been routed by the US bombing campaign, many were killed, a
larger number of them were arrested, but the vast majority just left
the cities and either crossed into Pakistan or melted in the
countryside in the midst of their people.
The ISAF [International Security Assistance
Force] was created in Bonn with 5,000 soldiers, and it was to be
deployed only "in the capital and its immediate surroundings." It
was agreed, however, that if we felt the need to expand ISAF in
numbers and out of Kabul that would happen. It almost immediately
became abundantly clear that there was a crying need for such an
expansion. [Secretary General] Kofi Annan publicly asked for more
troops for ISAF and for them to expand outside of Kabul. That appeal
and numerous others we made were rejected or ignored.
We didn't know then, but everyone does know now,
that from September 11, 2001, the US administration was looking much
more to Iraq than to Afghanistan. They were not really interested in
working seriously to stabilize Afghanistan. They had already decided
to invade Iraq, and they were looking toward Baghdad, not Kabul.
Around the middle of 2003, I went around begging
everybody to do what I called then a Bonn 2 conference.
Unfortunately, there again nobody was listening. The Americans had
by then invaded Iraq. I am tempted to say that the conference
Secretary of State Clinton is now talking about is very close to
what would have been the Bonn 2 Conference. Alas, it comes after six
very long, wasted years.
Did the Afghan
government meet your expectations?
The government of Afghanistan did not do as well
as it should have. It was very, very difficult for it to act. And
the international community did not help it as effectively as it
might have.
Another vitally important point is that Afghans
know the difference between a friendly military force coming from
outside to help them and an occupying force. ISAF in the beginning
was seen as a friendly force, and it was liked, it was welcomed, it
was supported, it was not attacked. But now [since 2003] NATO--I
don't think it has performed very well, and more and more people are
looking at it as a force of occupation.
How big is
Pakistan's role?
Pakistan is absolutely key to any serious peace
process in Afghanistan. Whether anybody likes it or not, if Pakistan
says there shouldn't be peace in Afghanistan, then there will be no
peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan, no matter how weak, no matter how
complicated its own problems, does have that kind of influence.
Now the gangrene that is eating Afghanistan is
expanding into Pakistan. In 1999 I warned the Security Council that
it was mistaken to think that Afghanistan did not matter, that if
the inhabitants of that poor, backward, isolated country wanted to
go on killing one another, let them do it. This is wrong not only on
moral grounds but also because you cannot bottle up a conflict like
the one in Afghanistan. It will spill over and may hit very, very
far away from its borders. So it had done on September 11, 2001. I
fear it has done so again a couple of months ago in Mumbai. The US
was dragged into Afghanistan in 2001, and India may well be in the
process of being dragged into the conflict today.
What about the role
of Iran?
Iran is generally considered to be relatively
less important than Pakistan. Iran has much influence; it has
consistently cultivated its relations with a lot of people in all
parts of the country. But there is not the sense of kinship that
exists between the Pashtun on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan
border. The Pashtuns are the largest community inside Afghanistan,
and they are a very, very large community in Pakistan.
Iran worked with us very actively in Bonn and
during the first two years after Bonn. The framework for that
cooperation was created by me in 1997, "the six-plus-two group"--the
six were the neighbors of Afghanistan, plus Russia and the United
States. That is the only place where the Iranians and Americans were
sitting together and actually talking directly to one another.
Later, US Ambassador [Zalmay] Khalilzad and the ambassador of Iran
were meeting in the UN Residence fairly regularly. Yes, Iran helped.
It is good that Secretary of State Clinton went out of her way to
say that Iran must participate in the forthcoming conference.
Does Pakistan have
any grounds for suspecting India of working against its interests in
Afghanistan?
Pakistan has been always obsessed with the fear
of being surrounded. It was first the Soviet Union that expanded its
influence through the Communists in Afghanistan being friendly to
India while being hostile to Pakistan. Then the government of the
mujahedeen, after the departure of the Soviet Union, was also seen
rightly or wrongly as rather hostile by Pakistan.
Then the Taliban came, and for the first time
since the creation of Pakistan, Islamabad had in Kabul a government
that was 100 percent with Pakistan and 100 percent against India. So
you can't blame Pakistan for rather liking the Taliban.
After 2001, definitely the people who were helped
to regain control of the government in Kabul were hostile--were
clearly hostile--to Islamabad and very friendly with India. Then
India opened consulates in many cities, including in places like
Kandahar that are relatively close to the Pakistani border. Afghan
and Indian officials will naturally tell you that India is providing
substantial humanitarian and development aid and that there are
legitimate needs for them to have these consulates. Pakistanis doubt
that. They think that Indian consulates are full of intelligence
people who cooperate with their Afghan counterparts to work against
Pakistani interests. They are adamant, for example, that the
rebellion in Baluchistan is fanned and supported from these Indian
consulates in Afghanistan.
For the future of
Afghanistan, would it help if Karzai was not re-elected in August?
I have spoken to President Karzai recently, and I
think he agrees with me that one shouldn't look at the issues that
are now plaguing his nation from the angle of whether he, Hamid
Karzai, should or should not remain president of the country. I
think that President Karzai served his country very well, in very
complex and difficult circumstances. We, the international
community, haven't helped him much. Quite often we have hindered his
actions.
As often happens when things are not going well,
some in the international community are engaging in a futile blame
game. That does not serve the interests of anyone--certainly not the
interests of the people of Afghanistan. President Karzai says there
isn't much consultation between himself and his government and key
members of the international community.
I have been talking for years now about the need
for a comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan. This strategy cannot
be worked out effectively without the full participation of the
government and people of Afghanistan. Far too often there is a
tendency among the internationals to look at the problems piecemeal.
For the moment, for example, the presidential election is an issue.
Should Karzai stand again or not? Should he be supported or, on the
contrary, opposed?
How about arranging a meeting for President
Karzai with President Obama in Washington (or elsewhere) in the
not-distant future?
If there must be a transition in Afghanistan from
a Karzai era to a post-Karzai era, he should be part of that effort,
not the victim of it. He loves his country enough to accept what is
good for his country, not what is good for Hamid Karzai.
Has he been
personally hurt by a campaign in Washington to discredit him?
He did not speak to me about it, but I'm sure he
must be hurt. I have the impression that some people in Washington
are treating him as if he had been part of the Bush administration.
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